Thursday, November 4, 2010

Still Trying to Determine My Race Pace

As the title suggests, I'm still trying to figure out what pace to run the Women's Half Marathon in.  Feel free to guess my finishing time and win...nothing.  Maybe I'll send you a hand stamped thank you card.

This mornings 4.5 mile was to be a goal paced run. I was surprised at how warm and windy it was. Normally it's not windy in the morning. shows 69 degrees at 6am but I swear it's warmer than that.  If it's this warm at the start on Sunday it may be a slower race for me. The predicted low for Sunday is 56 and at 7am it could be in the low 70's.

The wind made me thirsty and I stopped at the magic water fountain. This fountain is magic because the water blasts out and drops way back.  I forgot about the magic powers bestowed on the fountain and got a nose full of water.

Back to my pace dilemma. My original goal when I signed up for the race was to run 7:58's. That is what I stupidly wonder if I should go for. My realistic goal is 8:10's or 8:15's and then pick up the pace in the middle if I feel good.  But it is a race and you're supposed to push yourself.  My garmin today went haywire and refused to correctly show me my instantaneousness pace during the run. It showed 7:30's even though I know it was slower.  It also showed 6:40's, which I know I wasn't running.  My end time was 7:43pace and it was labored.  Can I keep up 8:00's for 13.1 miles?

Using the race calculator on Coach Dean's site I ran some numbers.
7:58 pace works out to be a 1:44:26 half  (my PR is 1:44:19 so I would need a 7:57 pace for a PR)
8:00 is 1:44:52
8:10 is 1:47:03
8:15 is 1:48:09
8:23 is 1:50:00

There are other factors that need to be considered.

  • The temperature (which looks like it'll be warm)
  • wind ( I predict no wind!  unless of course it is at my back at all times)
  • my weight (darn chocolate from Halloween keeps sneaking its way into my hands)
  • my workouts (not to bad)
  • core work (could be better)
  • body aches (these always pick up the days preceding a race and this time it's no difference). 
  • Confidence and attitude (could also be better)
I still have 3 days to continue my obsession with the pace.  Maybe I'll be like sandbagger Adam where he says he's going to run a marathon as a long run and then hammers out a PR.

Thoughts?  Opinions?  Advice?

Happy Running!


misszippy said...

Given the forecast, I would start out conservatively (low 8s) and then see how you are feeling around 3 or so. If good, try to pick it up and see where you can take it. No matter what, good luck--I hope it's a great one for you!

Jamoosh said...

Everybody should be like Adam!

Amanda@runninghood said...

I agree with misszippy. Start out with more reservation and then as you start getting into it more then see if you can pick it up a bit. Even a few seconds per mile add up! Good luck and enjoy your race.

Johann said...

I actually agree with the "be like Adam" theory. I run and choose my pace according to how I feel on the day. I adapt my pace and race plan to the conditions and how I feel during the race.

Adrienne said...

You know I don't have any advice! You need to know how awesome you are!! You really really are! Good luck!

Giorgio said...

I'm sure thet after the first 2 km you know your average pace considering the path (ondulate or flat) and how you feel.
Good luck on your race Christina!

Giorgio said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Adam said...

I'm back!! Finally getting caught up. I think I finally have my sand shovel put away for the year. :)

So, how did you do!?!??! On a day like today that is pretty hot, I'm thinking that you were able to run a 1:49. not bad, but not where you wanted to be.